US Election 2020: The Aftermath
Wow, what a few weeks it has been!
It is likely the final outcome will be stretched well into late 2020/early 2021 by Mr Donald Trump, however the events from now until Inauguration Day for Mr Joe Biden will prove to be crucial in the fight against Covid-19 and stabilising a divided country.
This article is different in that we will be talking more about policies and what the future may hold for each significant party in this tumultuous period of time, rather than the general finance stuff, so apologies in advance!
Coming into the election, the Democrats had high hopes of achieving a blue wave victory; Presidential, House majority and Senate majority. Alas, although it appears the Presidency and House majority will be secured, the Senate can only be drawn 50-50 if the Dems win the 2 run-off Georgia Senate elections in January 2021. It's also very likely that the Dems will have lost House seats overall but kept a majority regardless.
Not quite the resounding victory and repudiation of Trumpism as was originally expected by the DNC. However, Mr Biden has received more votes than any other Presidential candidate ever, with the count getting close to 79 million votes. 51% of the vote share compared to 47.3% for Mr Trump, and at the end of the day, he is Mr President-Elect. To add icing to the cake, the US experienced a historic turnout rate of 65.1%, the highest in over 100 years, cementing the key strategy the Dems had decided on early on.
The future for the Dems also seems to be heading towards a showdown between different factions within the party, the progressive left and the centre/right of the party. It will therefore be interesting to see how Mr Biden, a man renowned for his deal-making skills with members of the opposite side of aisle, unites the party under one concise plan moving forwards. Apart from Covid-19, Medicare for All, a Green New Deal, Racial Inequality and Education Reform may be at the top of the agenda for Mr Biden come 2021 to bridge the gaps between ideologies between his own colleagues.
It is a bit of a tricky time for Republicans at the moment, and not only because they lost the election. Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia all have been projected to have been won by Mr Biden. These were the states that carried Mr Trump to victory in 2016 over Hilary Clinton. Despite winning the likes of Texas and Florida, Mr Trump was not able to do well enough in these decisive swing states to alter the course of the election.
However, despite the projected loss, Mr Trump yet again overperformed compared to the polls by a similar margin to 2016, another damning indictment on the polling system in the Western world. From early analysis, the white man swung towards Mr Biden, whereas Mr Trump picked up votes with black and Latino voters.
Over 73 million Americans voted for Mr Trump in this election, which means that he has retained favourability within the Republican base, despite the criticism for how he has dealt with Covid-19. I don't think there is 1 clear reason why Mr Trump did better than expected by most, however what is clear is that the GOP has a big decision to make moving forwards.
Trumpism. A word sometimes used to describe the last 4 years in the US, this new wave of politics via Twitter or maybe the refusal to acknowledge mistake/fault in one's actions. The GOP must decide whether to stick with Mr Trump or not, and it is not one that must be taken lightly.
By sticking with Mr Trump if he chooses to run in 2024, they will retain his core voting base that has helped him amass over 73 million votes. By not sticking with him, they risk alienating him from the party, leading to Mr Trump potentially running as an Independent in 2024 while siphoning off votes for the Republican Party.
However, it is not quite as easy as this. If they stick with him, they risk going against the democratic process of their country with the court motions Mr Trump is grasping onto as a last resort. Similarly, by not sticking with him, they could rebrand and present themselves as a new Republican Party, and replace Mr Trump with a likeminded candidate to promote for 2024.
There are counter arguments that can be made for all 4 cases mentioned above, so I will leave them with yourselves to ponder on!
After 3 attempts of trying, it seems Mr Biden will finally have achieved his dream, to become the President of the United States of America. His first priority will be to tackle the ever-increasing threat of Covid-19, followed by the economic recovery of the inevitable recession caused by it.
Unfortunately, the racial and wealth divisions in America stoked by this one-term President has meant that the damage has likely been done already within communities across the nation.
Mr Biden faces an uphill battle to restore peace and unity, and as some may say, he is probably the best person suited for the job.